A New Paradigm of Venture Analysis: Scenario-Based Approaches, Digitalization, and Institutional Constraints

The article examines modern approaches to the evaluation and strategic management of venture projects under conditions of high uncertainty, digitalization, and institutional fragmentation. Special attention is paid to scenario modeling, system dynamics, and the implementation of digital tools, including intelligent agents and adaptive metric dashboards. The need to shift from classical valuation models (such as DCF and market multiples) to hybrid and scenario-based methods is justified, especially in unstable macroeconomic environments. The study analyzes institutional constraints typical of emerging markets and offers a set of adaptation tools. The result is a conceptual model of venture resilience based on the integration of digital analytics, scenario planning, and institutional support mechanisms.