Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Odyssey: An Analysis of Riyadh’s Enigmatic Position on Normalization with Israel

The process of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel had its groundwork set through Trump 1.0 following the genesis of the Abraham Accords. A path toward the normalization of relations between the two countries was further mediated by the United States under the Biden administration. However, following the October 2023 attacks coordinated by the Iran-backed Hamas against Israel, and Israel’s subsequent war waged on Hamas, complicated its relations with Saudi Arabia. Although the social and economic benefits of a potential normalization would largely benefit the two countries, the political unrest surrounding the recognition of a Palestinian state has found its way back into this particular discourse. In this regard, this paper tries to understand Saudi Arabia’s stance with respect to potential normalization with Israel from a neorealist purview. This is done through the achievement of the following objectives. First, to take a brief look at the rapprochement process initiated by the Abraham Accords under Trump 1.0. Second, to understand the past hostilities between the two countries and to identify the impetus for reconciliation. Third, to take a look at the setbacks in this process following Israel’s war with Hamas, and its current escalating conflict with Iran. Finally, to analyze the role of the United States under the second administration of Trump and to look at the areas of convergence and divergence of Israeli–Saudi interests.