How Officials Use Intelligence Analysis: A Situational Theory

What explains variation in how officials use intelligence analysis? How can one official acting on one issue within one bureaucratic and political reality seem alternately to use, misuse, and not use analysis at different times? This article proposes an answer by introducing a new theory and evaluating it with a plausibility probe centered on Robert McNamara's experiences during the Vietnam War. The theory claims that officials use analysis adaptively to meet situational needs. It builds on research into the psychology of mindsets, emotions, and information processing to specify mechanisms of situational patterns of use—an account with marked implications for research and practice.