ABSTRACT Non‐communicable diseases (NCDs) pose a significant public health challenge, especially in low‐ and middle‐income countries like Iran, where they account for approximately 67% of all deaths and 39% of disability‐adjusted life years. Our study employs scenario planning to explore the future of behavioral risk factors influencing NCDs in Iran, focusing on the interplay of socio‐economic, environmental, and political determinants. The research is structured into three phases: first, identifying key drivers affecting risk factors of NCDs, including tobacco use, alcohol consumption, unhealthy nutrition, and physical inactivity; second, utilizing cross‐impact analysis to assess the influence and dependence of these factors; and third, constructing potential future scenarios based on identified key uncertainties. The findings reveal that economic development and political commitment are key uncertainties shaping the future landscape of NCDs risk factors. In light of the scenario space, four scenarios for the future of behavioral risk factors of NCDs in Iran were presented, named Utopia (Developed economy and Committed government), Brave New World (Developed economy and uncommitted government), The Platform (Underdeveloped economy and Committed government), and Blindness (Underdeveloped economy and Uncommitted government). Scenarios were narrated based on causal relationships between factors with high importance. The study concludes that integrating scenario planning into public health strategies is essential for anticipating challenges and optimizing resource allocation in combating NCDs in Iran. By addressing these complex interactions, stakeholders can develop targeted interventions that align with global health objectives, ultimately contributing to improved health outcomes and sustainable development.
Fallah et al. (Fri,) studied this question.