What question did this study set out to answer?

To analyze land use and land cover changes from 2016 to 2021 in the Abaya–Chamo sub‐basin of Ethiopia.

February 12, 2026Applied and Environmental Soil Science1 citationsOpen Access

Landscape Transformation in Ethiopia’s Abaya–Chamo Sub‐Basin: Patterns and Dynamics of LULC Change (2016–2021)

MAMelku Dagnachew AlemuUniversity of the Free State FLFanuel LaekemariamWolaita Sodo University SBSisay A. BelayWolaita Sodo University

Key Points

To analyze land use and land cover changes from 2016 to 2021 in the Abaya–Chamo sub‐basin of Ethiopia.
Utilized Sentinel‐2A satellite imagery for classification.
Applied supervised maximum likelihood algorithm with GIS techniques.
Incorporated field GPS data and Google Earth imagery for validation.
Conducted socioeconomic surveys to identify drivers of land use change.
Achieved overall accuracy of 86% to 89.9% and kappa coefficients between 0.8112 and 0.8644.
Abaya Guangua saw improved vegetation cover over 76% due to restoration efforts.
Arba Minch and Chencha experienced agricultural land expansions of 23.3% and 20%, respectively.
Hobicha and Loka Abaya lost 19% to 29% of forest cover, indicating land degradation.
47% to 56% of landscapes underwent significant land use changes, with shifts mainly to agriculture.

Abstract

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) from 2016 to 2021 across six representative landscapes—Abaya Guangua, Arba Minch, Chencha, Hobicha, Loka Abaya, and Mierab Abaya—within the Abaya–Chamo sub‐basin (ACSB) of southern Ethiopia. Sentinel‐2A satellite imagery was classified using a supervised maximum likelihood algorithm integrated with remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The classification was supported by field‐collected GPS data, high‐resolution Google Earth imagery, and information from local interviews. Validation achieved overall accuracies between 86% and 89.9% and kappa coefficients ranging from 0.8112 to 0.8644, exceeding Anderson’s standards (≥ 85% accuracy; ≥ 0.80 Kappa). The results revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in LULC changes driven by agricultural expansion, population pressure, and localized restoration initiatives. Abaya Guangua showed improved vegetation cover (> 76%) and increased forest and grassland due to integrated restoration efforts. In contrast, Arba Minch and Chencha recorded agricultural land expansion of 23.3% and 20%, respectively, primarily at the expense of forest and grasslands. Hobicha and Loka Abaya experienced significant forest losses (19%–29%) and grassland reductions, accompanied by increased bare land, indicating escalating land degradation. Mierab Abaya exhibited a 21.7% decline in forest cover with modest agricultural growth. Overall, 47%–56% of the landscapes underwent notable LULC conversions, mainly from forest and grassland to agriculture. Socioeconomic surveys identified population pressure (63%) and soil degradation (56%) as the main drivers. Despite localized vegetation recovery, persistent agricultural encroachment and vegetation depletion threaten soil integrity and ecological stability. Sustainable landscape restoration and improved land management are therefore crucial to mitigate land degradation and maintain the ecological resilience of the ACSB.

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