Background This study meticulously outlines the evolution of the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) among different age and sex groups in China from 1990 to 2021, analyzes the global impact of the disease, and predicts the trend of disease burden up to 2035. Methods Leveraging public data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2021, this study thoroughly analyzed the characteristics of the burden of MNBAC in China and globally, including its incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The joinpoint analysis method was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% uncertainty interval, revealing the trend of MNBAC’s impact. Furthermore, Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast changes in disease burden leading up to 2035. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of MNBAC in China increased from 0.65 to 1.42 per 100 000 people, and the global ASIR rose from 0.97 to 1.11 per 100 000. The AAPC for China’s ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were 2.59%, 2.71%, 1.52%, and 1.26%, and the AAPC of ASIR and ASPR of the global burden of MNBAC were 0.44% and 0.51%, respectively. The effect of age and sex on the burden of MNBAC showed significant differences. Forecasting analyses suggest that from 2022 to 2035, the burden of MNBAC in China and globally will show a declining trend. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of MNBAC in China has been rising among the population, particularly pronounced among older men. Although forecasts indicate a gradual reduction in the future burden of MNBAC, given China’s large population base and the increasing trend of population aging, MNBAC will pose a public health challenge in China.
Zhang et al. (Sat,) studied this question.