Why, when, and how do strategic surprises emerge? Prevailing models trace the experience of strategic surprises to errors in information acquisition and utilization. They posit that we experience strategic surprises due to insufficient information, inattention to information, inaccurate information, inflexibility in updating beliefs, insufficient depth of reasoning, or interpretation errors. Here, we offer a novel and parsimonious explanation for strategic surprises concentrating on the nature of our mental representations. Building on construal level theory, we propose that strategic surprises emerge when individuals, organizations, and nations think too abstractly or too concretely during strategic interactions. We illustrate the broad applicability of our account across multiple domains, including close relationships, work organizations, financial markets, sports, politics, and national security. We provide novel insights into the nature of strategic surprises, outline promising directions for future research, and offer actionable recommendations for those looking to better prepare for undesirable strategic surprises. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).
Halevy et al. (Thu,) studied this question.