What question did this study set out to answer?

To explore carbon permit allocation and its implications for climate debt in the context of equal environmental human rights.

March 4, 2026Climate Dynamics1 citationsOpen Access

Carbon permit allocation, carbon neutrality time and climate debt for one country under equal environmental human rights

JLJie LiHarbin University of Science and Technology

Key Points

To explore carbon permit allocation and its implications for climate debt in the context of equal environmental human rights.
Developed a framework for carbon permit allocation and climate debt based on environmental human rights.
Conducted observational analysis of cumulative CO2 emissions and their impact on global temperatures.
Introduced a new carbon accounting system called equal per capita carbon quota.
Estimated mandatory carbon neutrality timelines for various countries and their respective climate debts.
Each 1000 Gt C of cumulative CO2 emissions is associated with a likely 0.49 °C increase in global temperatures.
C6 countries have a total carbon emission deficit of 656.15 Gt C, showing the immense challenge they face in achieving carbon neutrality.
The cumulative climate debts of the USA and C6 total around $34.9 trillion and $59.1 trillion, respectively.
The USA's emissions contribute to a cumulative extra warming of ~0.194 °C, while C6 accounts for ~0.328 °C.

Abstract

This paper introduces the foundations of science and environmental human rights (EHRs) for carbon permit allocation (CPA) of one country, and the hierarchical framework of CPA and corresponding climate debt as well. Then, with the framework of equal EHRs, primary CPA, remaining carbon emission quota (RCEQ), mandatory carbon neutrality time (MCNT), cumulative atmospheric extra warming and climate debt for one country are studied. Observation analysis indicates that each 1000 Gt C of cumulative CO2 emissions is assessed to likely cause a 0. 49 °C increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMT) with a range 0. 25–0. 74°C, higher than a 0. 45 °C with a range 0. 27–0. 63°C of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (in: Masson-Delmotte et al. (eds) Climate Change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, 2021). Observation and a climate-carbon model (CCM) demonstrate that the long-term warming in GMT since 1850 are the result of cumulative human emissions. Therefore, we further introduce a new carbon accounting system, the EPC (an equal per capita carbon quota under equal EHRs). For the 2 °C threshold and 2050 global carbon neutrality initiative, as of 2022, the USA, Canada, Russia, the UK, Germany, and Australia (C6 for short) no longer have any allowable carbon emission space, their total carbon emission deficits is up to 656. 15 Gt C, their MCNTs are 1936, 1928, 1959, 1966, 1966, and 1988, respectively, and the cumulative climate debts of the USA and C6 have reached as high as about US 34. 9 and 59. 1 trillion (calculated at US 90 per tCO2), respectively. The cumulative atmospheric extra warmings caused by the USA and C6 countries are ~ 0. 194 and 0. 328 °C, respectively, accounting for ~ 49% and 82% of the total extra warming caused, respectively, and explain 15. 3% and 25. 8% of the GMT increase since 1850, respectively, resulting in a serious deterioration of the EHRs in these countries with significant negative national EHRs indices. The China’s RCEQ is 423. 23 Gt C, and its MCNT will be in 2061, indicating that the China’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 is fully in line with this outcome.

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