Accurate wind generation time series are essential for designing future energy systems with large wind generation shares. For pan-European studies, these datasets must capture the geographical diversity of wind resources and support analyses of current and future installations, with changing wind technologies. This paper presents results from several projects aimed at generating high-resolution, validated wind generation data for system integration studies. Key modelling improvements include detailed wake modelling, stochastic simulation of unavailability, and consideration of climate change impacts. Validation shows that adjusting reanalysis data with the Global Wind Atlas version 2 improves accuracy. Climate change is projected to have a low-to-moderate impact on wind generation. Stochastic unavailability simulation is suggested especially when modelling offshore wind. The presented model enables also sub-hourly simulations, which are increasingly relevant for future market designs and balancing needs. Ongoing work focuses on large-scale offshore wake modelling and wind forecast simulation.
Koivisto et al. (Sun,) studied this question.