Improved influenza vaccines, which may offer broader and longer-lasting protection than current seasonal vaccines, are under development and may play a critical role in reducing the global burden of seasonal influenza. Previous analyses have shown their potential health and economic benefits, but these depend on pricing structures and national-level adoption timelines. This analysis uses established epidemiological and economic influenza models, and demand and price projections outlined by the WHO Full Value of Improved Influenza Vaccines Assessment, to estimate the health impact and net monetary benefits of improved vaccines compared to current seasonal vaccines, under different programmatic scenarios. We employed varying assumptions about vaccine characteristics, age-specific uptake, and introduction years of improved influenza vaccines, and modelled influenza burden between 2025 and 2050 in 178 countries. Our findings suggest that improved vaccines, deployed under plausible programmatic scenarios, could avert up to 17.9 (95% CI: 16.5–19.7) billion additional influenza infections and 6.0 (95% CI: 4.8–7.9) million deaths globally between 2025 and 2050, with estimated global net monetary benefit of up to 440 billion (95% CI: 257–652 billion) USD at lower projected price points. However, estimated cost-effectiveness varies widely by country income level and assumptions about demand. Despite the projected benefits, demand scenarios – largely based on historical use – may not reflect the most impactful or efficient use of improved influenza vaccines. Strategies targeting children may be more cost-effective in low-income countries than those focused on older adults. Optimising delivery strategies could increase the value and accessibility of improved influenza vaccines globally. The global net monetary benefit of improved influenza vaccines is largely driven by high monetary benefits in Europe and the Americas, suggesting that economic surplus in these regions could support more strongly tiered vaccine pricing to establish more equitable global access to improved influenza vaccines.
Goodfellow et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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