Hydrological Modeling of Reservoir Sedimentation and Evolution of Elevation–Capacity Curve of the Dam Reservoir

Accurate modeling of dam reservoir sedimentation is crucial for effective reservoir management. Traditional approaches for estimating sedimentation include the Hydraulic Approach (HA) and the Empirical Approach (EA). HA involves complex computations and requires substantial data, while the EA relies on equations like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), which use subjective parameters and lead to inaccurate estimations. This study introduces a novel approach called the hydrological approach, which integrates the sediment rating curve (SRC) and the dam reservoir elevation-capacity curve (ECC) to estimate reservoir sedimentation and evolution of the ECC. This HA leads to a newly developed equation for the estimation of the sediment rise and the corresponding sediment volume. The approach is applied to the Wadi Fatimah Dam in Saudi Arabia. By combining rainfall data from 1985 to 2022 and performing rainfall–runoff hydrological modeling combined with the proposed HA, sediment accumulation trends and reservoir capacity reductions are estimated from past to present. Validation through ground survey and geophysical investigations in 2008 confirms model accuracy. Findings reveal significant sediment buildup, with an estimated average of 7.5 m rise from 1985 to 2008. The study’s main findings highlighted the urgent need for effective sediment management strategies in arid regions, where sedimentation rates are notably higher than in other regions.