Achieving deep decarbonization in industry sector is a central socio-environmental challenge for achieving global climate targets, particularly in countries with large industrial bases. In China, the iron and steel sector is one of the most carbon-intensive industries and therefore plays a decisive role in the realization of the 2030 carbon peaking and 2060 carbon neutrality goals. Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking is widely regarded as a key technological pathway toward near-zero emissions, yet its large-scale deployment faces critical constraints related to material availability, regional heterogeneity, and infrastructure conditions. In particular, the lack of systematic, province-level assessments of resource constraints and spatial allocation hampers effective planning of EAF-based decarbonization pathways. To address this knowledge gap, this study applies the AIM-China/Steel model to quantitatively assess the provincial production potential of EAF steel in China. The analysis integrates cost optimization with regional scrap availability, inter-provincial scrap transportation, and energy costs to simulate future EAF capacity deployment under decarbonization constraints. The results show that regional scrap supply and the feasibility of scrap transport jointly determine the spatial distribution of EAF capacity. In scrap-scarce regions, EAF expansion is significantly constrained, requiring either cross-regional scrap flows or complementary low-carbon options such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H-DRI). Moreover, energy prices, infrastructure conditions, and policy interventions strongly influence the timing and scale of EAF deployment. These findings demonstrate that China’s steel decarbonization depends not only on green electricity expansion but also on coordinated planning of scrap recycling systems, transportation networks, and regional resource allocation. This study provides quantitative evidence to support province-level EAF capacity planning and informed policymaking for the steel industry’s transition toward near-zero carbon emissions.
Jiang et al. (Sun,) studied this question.