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March 16, 2026European Journal of Futures ResearchOpen Access

Scenarios for the Ecuadorian entrepreneurial ecosystem towards 2040

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Authors

CHCristian-Germán HernándezEBEnric Bas

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Overview

Foresight study explores future scenarios for Ecuador's entrepreneurial ecosystem, suggesting implications for governance and policy design.

Key Points

  • This study aims to explore possible future scenarios for Ecuador’s entrepreneurial ecosystem by analyzing key factors influencing its development through 2040.
  • Employed a foresight approach grounded in the voluntarist tradition of the French School.
  • Used integrated analytical design combining structural, actor-based, and morphological analyses.
  • Conducted empirical assessments with a panel of high-competence experts selected for their expertise.
  • Identified five strategic drivers in conflict affecting the ecosystem dynamics.
  • Identified five strategic drivers: financing, entrepreneurial education, collaboration culture, access to international markets, and public governance.
  • Highlighted asymmetric power relations and patterns among dominant and bridging actors influencing transformation.
  • Generated coherent structural and transformational configurations that clarify alternative pathways for ecosystem evolution.
  • Developed five narrative scenarios outlining varying trajectories from fragmented to consolidated ecosystems.

Cite This Study

Hernández et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b79df38166e15b153ab223https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-026-00265-z
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