What question did this study set out to answer?

Analyze the trend of HIV infection rates among adults in Mato Grosso do Sul from 2010 to 2023.

March 17, 2026The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases0 citationsOpen Access

Increasing Trend of Hiv Infection in Adults Along the Bioceanic and Cellulose Routes in Mato Grosso Do Sul, 2010–2023

GLGiovanna Mardini LanzariniEuropean Union of Medical Specialists RCRodrigo de Lima CabralEuropean Union of Medical Specialists LSLeandro Antero da SilvaEuropean Union of Medical Specialists

Key Points

Analyze the trend of HIV infection rates among adults in Mato Grosso do Sul from 2010 to 2023.
Used data from SINAN and IBGE to calculate incidence rates.
Applied Joinpoint Regression to estimate annual percent change (APC).
Utilized R software for analyzing sociodemographic variables and multinomial logistic regression.
Analyzed 4,020 HIV cases across 12 municipalities.
Significant increase in HIV rates observed in Bataguassu (APC: 14.4%) and other municipalities.
Campo Grande had the highest case concentration (81.3%) and rates above 40/100,000 since 2017.
Predominance of male cases with the highest rates found in young adults.
Mixed-race individuals were predominant in several municipalities, with sexual transmission between men noted as the most common route.

Abstract

HIV/AIDS remains an important public health problem in Brazil, marked by regional inequalities and challenges in epidemiological surveillance. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend in HIV infection rates among adults living in municipalities located along the bioceanic and cellulose routes in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, between 2010 and 2023. Data from SINAN and IBGE were used to calculate incidence rates (number of HIV cases/population*100,000). The Joinpoint Regression Program was applied to estimate the annual percent change (APC), and R software (v.4.4.2) was used to analyze the distribution of sociodemographic variables and to perform multinomial logistic regression (OR). A total of 4,020 HIV cases were analyzed across 12 municipalities. Campo Grande concentrated most of the records (81.3%) and presented rates above 40/100,000 inhabitants since 2017. Trend analysis indicated significant growth in rates in Bataguassu (APC: 14.4%), Guia Lopes da Laguna (15.6%), Nioaque (6.1%), Ribas do Rio Pardo (12.7%), Santa Rita do Pardo (78.5%), and Sidrolândia (13.4%), showing recent expansion along the bioceanic and cellulose routes. The median age ranged from 30 years (Campo Grande and Santa Rita do Pardo) to 41 years (Guia Lopes da Laguna), concentrating in young adults. There was a marked predominance of males in Campo Grande (76.5%), Três Lagoas (67.2%), and Jardim (52.9%). Regarding race, mixed-race individuals predominated in Guia Lopes da Laguna (72.7%), Jardim (66.7%), Nova Alvorada do Sul (64.3%), Ribas do Rio Pardo (60%), Sidrolândia (54%), and Três Lagoas (54.4%), while Campo Grande (47%) and Porto Murtinho (55%) had higher proportions of white individuals. The probable route of transmission most frequently reported was sexual intercourse between men, prevalent in Campo Grande (58.0%), Três Lagoas (56.7%), and Jardim (59.8%). In the regression, being male increased the likelihood of belonging to the “sex between men” category (OR = 0.01; 95% CI: 0.0057–0.0137). The findings highlight an increasing trend in HIV infection in strategic municipalities along the bioceanic (Bataguassu, Guia Lopes da Laguna, Sidrolândia) and cellulose (Ribas do Rio Pardo, Santa Rita do Pardo) routes, indicating the need to intensify epidemiological surveillance, early diagnosis, and targeted preventive interventions, especially among young adult men.

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