Objectives: This study examines the consequences of the New York Police Department’s late-2022 operational shift that dramatically expanded vehicle pursuits without a formal policy change. We evaluate whether the surge in pursuits affected motor vehicle collisions, robberies, and shootings, and whether any crime-prevention benefits offset the associated collision costs. Methods: ITS segmented regression estimates changes in pursuit-related collisions following the October 2022 escalation; no external comparison group is required because collisions are mechanically linked to pursuit volume. For crime outcomes, a precinct-level heterogeneous-effects DD design exploits pre-treatment crime-level variation across all 77 NYPD precincts, with event-study diagnostics assessing the parallel trends assumption. A cost–benefit analysis estimates the threshold of prevented crimes needed for pursuit escalation to break even. Results: Monthly pursuits surged from roughly 8 to over 160 events — a rise exceeding 2,000%. Pursuit-related collisions increased proportionally with pursuit volume and declined sharply following the February 2025 partial re-restriction that reduced pursuits by approximately three-quarters. Crime outcomes provide no evidence of deterrence: the robbery DD estimate is positive and significant, while the shooting DD estimate, though nominally negative, rests on non-parallel pre-trends. The February 2025 reduction in pursuits was not followed by any increase in crime. Conclusions: Pursuit escalation produced clear and attributable collision harms while providing no credible evidence of crime reduction. Cost–benefit estimates suggest the threshold of prevented shootings required to offset these harms was not achieved. Agencies should require affirmative evidence of crime-prevention benefits before expanding pursuit authority.
Hall et al. (Tue,) studied this question.