What question did this study set out to answer?

To analyze how the climate in Northern Hemisphere winter responded to major volcanic eruptions using CMIP6 models.

April 10, 2026Open Access

On CMIP6 Model Consensus for the Climate Response in Eurasian Winter to Historical Volcanic Eruptions

Key Points

To analyze how the climate in Northern Hemisphere winter responded to major volcanic eruptions using CMIP6 models.
Utilized multi-member ensembles of 15 models from CMIP6.
Employed three reanalysis data sets for comprehensive comparison.
Focused on the eruptions of Krakatoa and Pinatubo.
Demonstrated a large model consensus on the strengthening of the polar vortex following eruptions.
Associated increase in surface temperatures over Northern Eurasia in the first winter post-eruption.
Showed that temperature and wind responses were nearly independent of the ENSO phase.

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the climate response in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter to major volcanic eruptions of the past, using multi‐member ensembles of historical experiments of 15 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and three reanalysis data sets. Focusing on the two largest historical eruptions of Krakatoa and Pinatubo, the results highlight a large model consensus on the strengthening of the polar vortex and an associated increase in surface temperatures over parts of Northern Eurasia in the CMIP6 multi‐model mean in the first winter following the eruptions. This finding is consistent with models simulating a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The responses of the surface temperatures and winds show hardly any dependence on the phase of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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