Strategic Prospects for the Development of the AIrline Enterprise

This study included a strategic analysis of the financial performance of Pulkovo Airport JSC for the period 2020–2024, with forecast estimates through 2030. The empirical basis for the study was comprised of financial statements, relevant industry publications, analytical materials from rating agencies, and relevant corporate events from 2025 to the first half of 2026 (announcement of the dividend policy and updating of the parameters of the second-stage investment project). The methodological framework includes horizontal and vertical balance sheet analysis, calculation of key ratios (liquidity, solvency, business activity, financial stability), asset classification by risk level, and scenario modeling of strategic alternatives. The author introduces and substantiates the concept of "reverse leverage," which describes the mechanism for accelerated net profit growth due to the full repayment of the loan portfolio and the absence of interest payments. As a result, a capital structure was revealed that is exceptional for the infrastructure industry: the autonomy ratio reached 0.92, there is no debt burden, the absolute liquidity ratio (11.07) exceeds the standard by 22 times, and the return on sales is a record 35.7%. The company's transition from the phase of debt financing of infrastructure projects to a self-financing and capital accumulation model was confirmed. The share of cash in assets increased to 23.4% (RUB 8.1 billion as of June 2025), which creates the effect of "overheated liquidity". The company's strategic dilemmas are related to the fact that it is at a bifurcation point between two scenarios: the investment scenario is the implementation of the second stage of the airport at a cost of RUB 130 billion (an increase in the estimate from RUB 40 billion) with the start of construction in 2027 and completion by 2041, which will lead to an increase in the share of capital expenditures to 30% of revenue and the emergence of moderate debt (<4.0x FFO); The dividend scenario is a payment of 5–7.5 billion rubles annually in the absence of a formal dividend policy, which creates risks of underfunding infrastructure and conflicts of interest among shareholders.