Abstract Understanding the fate of carbon stocks in human-modified tropical landscapes is critical for mitigating climate change. Yet quantifying the impacts of landscape connectivity on the potential of regrowing forests to sequester carbon remains underrepresented. Using remote sensing and a space-for-time substitution approach, we analyzed aboveground carbon accumulation across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Forest connectivity emerged as a key determinant of carbon gains, with accumulation rates increasing by 43%–69% from fragmented to highly connected landscapes. In the western and coastline region, highly connected forests accumulated over three times more carbon (3.03 ± 0.81 vs. 0.93 ± 0.34 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) than those in low-connectivity areas. We modeled carbon stocks and found that full protection of secondary forests as of 2020 could increase stocks by 35% (132 Tg C) by 2030. Our results highlight the importance of protecting both old-growth and secondary forests while enhancing connectivity through targeted restoration. Strengthening conservation policies that integrate spatial connectivity is essential to maximizing the climate mitigation potential of tropical forests.
Rosan et al. (Thu,) studied this question.