How vulnerable are amphibians to climate change? A mechanistic perspective

Abstract Amphibians are frequently identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, yet the mechanisms driving this sensitivity remain uncertain. Approaches that explicitly link physiological mechanisms to environmental variation provide powerful tools for forecasting climate vulnerability. However, their reliability depends on assumptions that accurately reflect the conditions amphibians experience in nature. Here, we evaluate the physiological mechanisms most often invoked to explain amphibian climate vulnerability, including overheating, desiccation, energetic constraints and seasonal dormancy and assess the ecological realism of current modelling frameworks. We show that broad‐scale assessments often overlook widespread behavioural buffering, such as nocturnal activity, subterranean refuge use and close association with saturated microhabitats, which substantially reduce exposure to extreme temperatures and water loss. We also identify opportunities to improve mechanistic models by incorporating microclimatic heterogeneity, behavioural avoidance of stressful conditions and hydric landscape dynamics. Doing so will clarify when and where climate change poses a true physiological threat and provide greater insight into the processes shaping amphibian extinction risk. Grounding mechanistic forecasts in ecological reality is essential for avoiding mischaracterization of risk and for directing limited resources towards amphibian research, species and regions most in need. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.