What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to accurately forecast groundwater depletion and evaluate recharge scenarios in the Galedar aquifer.

April 22, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Quantitative Assessment of Aquifer Depletion and Managed Recharge Scenarios: A Hybrid SARIMA-Wavelet Approach in the Galedar Aquifer, Southern Iran

Key Points

The aim is to accurately forecast groundwater depletion and evaluate recharge scenarios in the Galedar aquifer.
Integrated wavelet analysis and SARIMA modeling were used to analyze groundwater levels from 2006 to 2024.
Sensitivity analysis identified dominant factors affecting water levels.
Managed recharge scenarios were assessed in terms of their impact on aquifer recovery.
Groundwater levels are projected to decline by 2.6 m by 2034 under normal conditions.
The hybrid SARIMA-wavelet model improved forecast accuracy, reducing RMSE by 16-31%.
Managed recharge scenarios indicate potential recovery improvements, with distributed recharge showing the greatest storage recovery.

Abstract

Groundwater depletion in semi‑arid regions requires accurate forecasting and proactive management. This study integrates wavelet analysis, diagnostic SARIMA modeling, sensitivity analysis, comparative physical/machine learning models, and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) scenario evaluation to forecast groundwater levels in the Galedar aquifer, Iran (2006–2024). Wavelet decomposition reveals decadal variability (48.5% variance) in regional flow zones and annual dominance (45%) in the high‑recovery zone, with coherence to precipitation (1–3 month lag) and ENSO (r=0.35–0.50). Manual SARIMA achieves out‑of‑sample RMSE of 0.062–0.162 m. Sensitivity identifies specific yield as dominant (Sobol’ ST=0.58–0.71). The hybrid SARIMA‑wavelet model reduces RMSE by 16–31%. Under business‑as‑usual, the mean water level declines 2.6 m (0.26 m/year) by 2034, with cumulative storage loss (191.1 MCM) exceeding recoverable storage (150 MCM). MAR scenarios show: high‑recovery zone recharge (+1.41 m, 71% decline reduction); distributed recharge (1.8‑fold greater storage recovery); episodic recharge (+1.11 m, 40% lower efficiency). Cost‑benefit analysis confirms positive net present value (BCR 1.4–3.4). The framework supports risk‑based, spatially stratified management for stressed aquifers.

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