Greenhouse Gas Emissions Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Sites

Municipal solid waste landfills emit greenhouse gases (GHGs), which negatively impact human health and the environment. These gases include primarily methane and carbon dioxide. The present study focuses on estimating the landfill emissions across all Iraqi governorates for landfilling all municipal solid waste (MSW) using the LandGEM model, which has high accuracy and is issued by the EPA. This model was applied, with parameters modified for Iraqi conditions, to estimate GHG emissions. These parameters include methane generation potential (lo) and the Methane Generation Constant (k), which depend on Iraqi solid waste generation. Then, statistical analysis using SPSS was applied to verify the model used in this study. The results showed that in 2047, all governorates will achieve the maximum emissions due to the slow degradation of MSW organic fraction, which were 4.7×108, 2.1×108, 1.1×108, 1.4×108, 5.9×107, 3.7×107, 4.7×107, 3.2×107, 8.2×107, 8.9×107, 2.7×107 m3/year for Baghdad, Ninavah, Babel, Duhok, Sulaimaniah, Erbil, Diyala, Karbala, Wasit, Salahalden, Najaf, Nassriah, Basra, Ammara, respectively. This huge difference is due to population and solid waste composition. Furthermore, the total accumulated GHG emissions for all Iraqi governorates from 2022 through 2061, i.e., after 15 years of landfill closure, which represent the degradation of the almost entirely rapidly and slowly decomposing MSW organic fraction, are about 55×109 m3. To confirm LandGEM model results, a statistical model (ANOVA) was performed to estimate the generated greenhouse gas emissions in all Iraqi governorates as a function of time. The results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was high across all governorates, ranging from 0.963 to 0.974. Based on the results and the significant GHG emissions, sustainable management of MSW across all Iraqi governorates is necessary to reduce climate change and negative health impacts.