Persistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variability

ABSTRACT As the penetration of wind generation increases on power systems throughout the world, the effects of wind variability on power systems are of increasing concern. This study focuses on sustained occurrences of low wind speeds over durations ranging from 1 h to 20 days. Such events have major implications for the variability of energy yields from wind farms. This, in turn, influences the accuracy of wind resource assessment. The frequency analysis techniques commonly used to study wind variability cannot represent the autocorrelation properties of wind speeds and thus provide no information on the probabilities of occurrence of such sustained, low wind events. We present two complementary methods for assessing wind variability, runs analysis and intensity–duration–frequency analysis, both with emphasis on characterising the occurrence of continuous, extended periods (up to several days) of low wind speeds. Multi‐annual time series of hourly wind speeds from meteorological stations in Ireland are analysed with both techniques. Sustained 20‐day periods corresponding to extremely low levels of wind generation are found to have return periods of around 10 years in coastal areas. Persistent, widespread low wind speed conditions across the entire country are found to occur only rarely. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.