What Makes Migrants Want to Stay in Poland? Ukrainians' Settlement Plans Two Years After the Outbreak of the War

ABSTRACT Ukrainian migration to Poland, which began in the early 1990s and intensified in the mid‐2010s, significantly increased following Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As the war continues, many Ukrainians are choosing to remain in Poland, as reflected in rising residence permit numbers. Typically well‐educated and work‐oriented, Ukrainian migrants are vital to Poland's workforce—particularly in demographically shrinking regions like the Lodz and Silesian voivodeships. However, their long‐term settlement plans remain uncertain. Drawing on survey data and logistic regression modelling, this study explores the factors shaping these intentions. While nearly half of the respondents expressed a desire to stay in Poland, one‐third were undecided. Key determinants include the security situation in Ukraine and living conditions in Poland—especially access to employment, housing, financial stability, and Polish language proficiency. Public support alone appears insufficient to determine settlement outcomes. The findings stress the need for targeted regional integration policies, with an emphasis on language education and job placement, to promote long‐term settlement and strengthen Poland's demographic and economic resilience.