Population Movements in the Context of Multiple Disasters: An Analysis of Disaster-Induced Migrations in Turkey in 2023

Abstract This study aimed to evaluate the impact of extraordinary events and disasters on migration in Turkey in 2023. Multiple hazards, and accompanying social vulnerabilities and disasters have caused notable shifts in internal migration patterns. The research investigated the spatial and quantitative relationship between disasters and migration, emphasizing how different hazard types shape population mobility across regions. Data were obtained from multiple official sources: extraordinary event and disaster records from the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) Integrated Disaster Management Platform (AYDES) database, internal migration and population statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), and spatial data analyzed through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The 2017 Socio-Economic Development Index (SEGE) was also used to explore the connection between post-disaster migration and provincial development levels. The analysis employed correlation, multiple regression, and GIS-based spatial mapping techniques to examine links between disaster frequency, affected populations, migration rates, and socioeconomic indicators. Results show that not only disasters but also extraordinary events—which do not reach official disaster thresholds—significantly influence migration dynamics. Large-scale disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and fires triggered intense migration flows, while spatial analysis revealed distinct regional disparities, particularly across Eastern Anatolia, the Black Sea, and the Mediterranean regions. These findings highlight that disasters extend beyond physical destruction, reshaping demographic, social, and economic recovery processes. The study underscores the need for an integrated policy approach linking disaster management and migration planning to support resilient urban development and sustainable recovery.