The People of Earth v. Their Governments

Website: https: //manual. warondisease. org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government. html Abstract: Existing literatures count deaths from government failure one silo at a time. Historians count war deaths. Health economists count efficacy-lag deaths. Global health researchers count disease deaths. No prior paper aggregates them. This paper does, while separating historical deaths from forward-looking settlement exposure. We charge the governments of Earth with three categories of negligent homicide and fiduciary failure: (1) Direct killing through war, conflict, and democide (310 million deaths since 1900) ; (2) Regulatory delay of safe and effective treatments under the 8. 2 years (95% CI: 4. 85 years-11. 5 years) efficacy lag mandated since 1962 (102 million deaths in existing-drug delay alone) ; and (3) Misallocation of resources away from disease treatment. Count Three has two ledgers: a historical medical opportunity cost from the 1900 war-money-to-trials counterfactual, and a forward-looking treaty remedy projected to prevent 10. 7 billion avoidable deaths if adopted now. The slice of military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze alone runs to \135 trillion (95% CI: \132 trillion-\136 trillion), equal to 29, 937 years of current government clinical-trial budgets. Under the primary lost-profits damages theory the corporate-liability exposure is roughly \25. 2 million (95% CI: \8. 28 million-\71. 6 million) per representative full-life cohort, or \10. 6 million (95% CI: \3. 5 million-\30. 3 million) per person as the NPV of the perpetual annual flow at 3%. Per dollar spent, the defendants killed 3, 068 (95% CI: 2, 878-3, 125) times more people through Type II regulatory errors than they prevented through Type I. The defendants had the money. They spent it elsewhere. We propose a 1% reallocation of military expenditure as the only remedy commensurate with the offense. Summary: An indictment for negligent mass homicide separating historical body counts from forward-looking treaty-settlement exposure, with a 1% military reallocation as the only remedy commensurate with the offense.