The construction of a typical climate year based on CMIP6 data represents an innovative approach to assess the effects of climate change on the energy performance of buildings. The method integrates global climate models with downscaling and bias-correction techniques, allowing the generation of hourly series consistent with future projections and more representative of expected operating conditions than traditional TMYs. The procedure involves selecting CMIP6 models related to the SSP 3-7.0 scenario for the area of interest, reconstructing the main meteorological parameters, and assembling a climate file useful for dynamic simulations and comfort analyses. The article presents a case study dedicated to the climate of Milan, a city particularly sensitive to urban heat islands and summer heat waves, with the aim of assessing the expected variation in thermal loads, consumption, and comfort indicators. The results show how a typical year based on future climate conditions can support adaptation strategies, more resilient design choices, and urban energy planning consistent with decarbonization objectives.
Busato et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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