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May 20, 2026The Journal of Infectious Diseases0 citations

Proportional Odds or Win Probability as Methods for Assessing Ordinal Outcomes in Infectious Disease Clinical Trials

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LHLinda J. HarrisonCancer Research And BiostatisticsFCFelicia C. ChowUniversity of California, San Francisco

Key Points

  • This review aims to evaluate the use of proportional odds ratio and win probability for assessing ordinal outcomes in infectious disease trials.
  • Review of summary statistics for ordinal outcomes, focusing on proportional odds ratio and win probability.
  • Introduction of visual tools such as stacked-bar charts and bubble plots for enhanced data interpretation.
  • Proportional odds ratio indicates likelihood of improved outcomes for treated participants compared to control.
  • Win probability estimates the chances of treated individuals faring better in a treatment-control pair.

Abstract

Infectious disease trials have long used ordinal outcomes, or ranked categorical scales, to capture the full spectrum of response to an intervention. We review 2 summary statistics for ordinal outcomes: the proportional odds ratio (pOR) and the win probability. The pOR asks: How much more likely is a treated participant to be in an improved category compared with control? The win probability asks: In a random treatment-control pair, what is the chance the treated participant fares better? We also introduce visual companions, the stacked-bar chart and bubble plot, to make ordinal trial results more accessible and interpretable.

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Cite This Study

Harrison et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0d5122f03e14405aa9d6dbhttps://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiag193
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