The Civilizational Sovereignty Clock: An Analytical Model of Informational Observability and Long-Term Existential Risk

This paper introduces the “Civilizational Sovereignty Clock” — a twelve-phase analytical framework tracking the progressive erosion of civilizational sovereignty through increasing informational observability, algorithmic reconstructibility, and computational transparency. Each phase details the internal transformation of civilization’s information-processing architecture, from pre-informational fragmentation to full synthetic reconstructability. The model frames long-term existential risk not as sudden catastrophe but as a continuous gradient process in which internal uncertainty is replaced by computable predictability through civilization’s own technological and competitive dynamics.