Socioeconomic divides in curricular pathways: Unpacking decision-making mechanisms and peer effects

This study develops and tests a comprehensive framework to explain socioeconomic inequalities in curricular choices, using England as a test case. Drawing on rational choice theory, bounded rationality, behavioural science, and culturalist perspectives, we evaluate a broad set of explanatory mechanisms. Linking rich survey data to administrative records, we examine both individual-level factors and peer effects, employing for the latter an instrumental variable approach based on the peer-of-peer methodology. We find that a parsimonious model incorporating prior academic performance, a composite measure of subjective occupational returns capturing the perceived accessibility of higher education and decision uncertainty, and peer influences fully accounts for observed socioeconomic disparities in curricular choices. Leveraging longitudinal data, we demonstrate that the balance between expressive and instrumental motivations for curricular choices shifts over time, with growing importance accorded to the latter at later educational transitions.