Provider supply and access to primary care

Resource-constrained delivery systems often have access issues, causing patients to wait a long time to see a provider. We develop theoretical and empirical models of wait times and apply them to primary care delivery by the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Using instrumental variables to handle simultaneity issues, we estimate the effect of clinician supply on new patient wait times. We find that it has a sizable impact. A 10% increase in capacity reduces wait times by 2.1%. Wait times are also associated with clinician productivity, scheduling protocols, and patient access to alternative sources of care. The VHA has adopted our models to identify underserved areas as specified by the MISSION Act of 2018.