Exploring the spatial effects of rapid urbanization on land use efficiency in China under Low-Carbon constraints

• Expanded an evaluation system for multi-system rapid urbanization. • There is a spatial lock-in effect between rapid urbanization and low-carbon land use. • Rapid urbanization exacerbates carbon emissions from land use in surrounding areas. • There are significant regional differences in urbanization levels and low-carbon land use efficiency. Confronting global climate challenges and carbon emission constraints, this study systematically evaluates the interplay between rapid urbanization and low-carbon land use efficiency (LUE) in China by integrating the Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) framework with Spatial Durbin Modeling. Key findings reveal: (1) Urbanization and LUE exhibited an upward trajectory from 2013 to 2022, yet with pronounced regional disparities driven by a center-periphery diffusion pattern; (2) A robust positive spatial correlation emerged between urbanization and LUE, accompanied by strengthening interdependencies and stabilized local clustering; (3) Urban expansion displayed limited disruption to low-carbon land use patterns, indicating spatial inertia and lock-in effects in localized transformations; (4) Urbanization imposed significant negative externalities, reducing local LUE and generating adverse spillovers on adjacent regions. These outcomes underscore the necessity of regionally differentiated governance mechanisms and collaborative spatial planning to reconcile urban growth with low-carbon transitions. The proposed methodology and empirical evidence offer actionable insights for optimizing land resource allocation and advancing high-quality urban development under carbon neutrality goals.