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June 3, 2026Journal of Modelling in Management

Modelling the duration of time between peak hospital admissions and peak bed occupancy for seasonal epidemics: application to influenza

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Authors

RWRichard M. Wood

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Overview

Randomized trial models bed occupancy duration in hospitals during influenza epidemics, suggesting operational improvements.

Key Points

  • This study aims to develop a mathematical model to quantify the time interval between peak hospital admissions and peak bed occupancy during seasonal influenza epidemics.
  • Modelled bed occupancy as a convolution of the admissions profile and the length of stay distribution.
  • Calibrated to data from 4,858 influenza admissions in a health-care system in England (2015/2016–2023/2024 seasons).
  • Utilized various statistical distributions to better represent the data.
  • Identified a median duration of 7.09 days (mean 6.98 days) between peak admissions and peak bed occupancy for seasonal influenza.
  • Found that the shape of the admissions profile significantly influences the duration, with steeper peaks leading to shorter durations.
  • Reported that the normal distribution is unsuitable for the admissions profile, with the Cauchy distribution yielding better fit.

Cite This Study

Richard M. Wood (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1fc6f7dee9eb8c0dce7d19https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-07-2025-0335
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