Probabilistic risk assessment of cotton pyrethroids: I. Distributional analyses of laboratory aquatic toxicity data

Abstract This is the first in a series of five papers that assess the risk of the cotton pyrethroids in aquatic ecosystems in a series of steps ranging from the analysis of effects data through modeling exposures in the landscape. Pyrethroid insecticides used on cotton have the potential to contaminate aquatic systems. The objectives of this study were to develop probabilistic estimates of toxicity distributions, to compare these among the pyrethroids, and to evaluate cypermethrin as a representative pyrethroid for the purposes of a class risk assessment of the pyrethroids. The distribution of cypermethrin acute toxicity data gave 10th centile values of 10 ng/L for all organisms, 6.4 ng/L for arthropods, and 380 ng/L for vertebrates. For bifenthrin, cyfluthrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and deltamethrin, the 10th centile values for all organisms were 15, 12, 10, and 9 ng/L, respectively, indicating similar or somewhat lower toxicity than cypermethrin. For tralomethrin and fenpropathrin, the 10th centiles were 310 and 240 ng/L, respectively. The distribution of permethrin toxicity to all organisms, arthropods, and vertebrates gave 10th centiles of 180, 76, and 1600 ng/L, respectively, whereas those for fenvalerate were 37, 8, and 150 ng/L. With the exception of tralomethrin, the distributions of acute toxicity values had similar slopes, suggesting that the variation of sensitivity in a range of aquatic nontarget species is similar. The pyrethroids have different recommended field rates of application that are related to their efficacy, and the relationship between field rate and 10th centiles showed a trend. These results support the use of cypermethrin as a reasonable worst-case surrogate for the other pyrethroids for the purposes of risk assessment of pyrethroids as a class.