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Enhancing ecological network (EN) resilience is a critical measure for maintaining ecosystem stability under the combined stresses of climate change and human activity. However, existing research has primarily focused on large-scale assessments of current ecological networks, with limited attention to disturbance resistance under future development scenarios. Furthermore, current EN optimization strategies overlook spatial heterogeneity along the urban-rural gradient, limiting local-scale conservation applicability. This study employs the System Dynamics (SD) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and node dynamic disturbance simulation to explore EN resilience in Jiangsu Province under different socio-climatic scenarios from 2000 to 2035. The urban-rural gradient analysis method is applied to assess ecological protection areas at the local scale. The results indicate that: (1) From 2020 to 2035, ecological source area declined to 9142 km 2 under SSP5-RCP8.5 (7.0% below 2000) and to 9368 km 2 under SSP2-RCP4.5 (4.7%), with corridor numbers decreasing under both scenarios. (2) EN resilience thresholds declined under both scenarios, reaching 0.41 under SSP5-RCP8.5—7.9% below the 2000 baseline—while the decline was less pronounced under SSP2-RCP4.5 (0.43), highlighting the critical role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping EN resilience trajectories. (3) The gradient protection strategy indicates that 78.38% of ecological protection areas are located in outer suburban and ecological zones, with resilience node density increasing 3.5-fold from urban (3.81%) to ecological areas (13.27%). This research provides a scientific basis for regional ecological conservation planning and proposes management and optimization strategies at an operational scale, holding significant practical implications.
Nie et al. (Fri,) studied this question.