I document a novel “complexity premium” in small firms using product life cycle focus measures. Small firms with low focus (spanning multiple life cycle stages simultaneously) significantly outperform high-focus small firms (focusing on one stage). The complexity premium suggests a distinct source of organizational risk not captured by standard asset pricing factors among small firms, which face greater resource constraints. Low-focus firms exhibit significantly negative exposure to investment-specific technology (IST) shocks, which carry a negative price of risk. Specifically, low-focus firms are adversely affected by IST shocks, consistent with internal frictions and limited resources that constrain their ability to reallocate capital across multiple life cycle stages. In contrast, high-focus firms are likely to benefit from IST shocks which positively predict future investments, supported by evidence that high-focus firms have more growth options (extensive margin) and exhibit greater investment sensitivity to Tobin’s q (intensive margin).
Lizzy Linchen Xie (Thu,) studied this question.