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The 2025 federal elections confirm the Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) above-average success in eastern Germany. Although the AfD is now successful in the whole of Germany, as shown by its strong results in Saarland and Baden-Württemberg, only in eastern Germany the AfD is the strongest party, gaining more than 30 per cent of the vote. But why is the AfD able to win people over in eastern Germany? A multivariate analysis of the 2023 Saxony Monitor reveals a number of independent factors. Party identification with the AfD in eastern Germany is based on chauvinistic prejudices, rejection of Muslim migration and Muslims in general, and pronounced anti-feminism. AfD voters show a greater alienation from politics, more specifically from the German party system. Men are more likely, and individuals with a high level of formal education are less likely to identify for the AfD. Importantly, an additional factor not relevant in West Germany matters for AfD support in the east: A sense of collective disadvantage in Eastern Germany compared to Western Germany, fed by the experiences of the recent past. Mostly not individual experiences lead to identification with the AfD, but rather the feeling of collective disadvantage.
Pickel et al. (Wed,) studied this question.