Quantitative Calculation of Fault Stress and Earthquake Critical Criterion under the Real-Virtual Dual Field Framework

Abstract Existing seismic dynamic models such as Coulomb stress theory and rate-and-state friction law can only interpret phenomena retrospectively, failing to quantitatively solve the attenuation of stress transmission across the full mantle-crust sphere, and cannot lock the precise critical conditions for fault rupture. Based on the axiom of the Real-Virtual Dual Field, this paper defines rigid crustal rocks as high-density steady-state real-field lattices, and the asthenosphere, fractured fault zones and pore fluids within fractures as rheological dispersed virtual-field lattice clusters. The conjugate golden decay law is adopted to establish a set of full-domain equations for layered stress attenuation, and the holographic entropy criterion is used to distinguish the steady state and instability boundary of closed fault systems. We complete the quantitative solution of accumulated stress on faults, derive critical formulas for calculating earthquake magnitude and rupture time that can be substituted with field observation data, and build a complete mathematical link from plate drift observation data to medium-long term earthquake prediction. This model unifies the physical properties of micro lattices and macro tectonic dynamics, eliminates the separation of multiple sets of mechanical equations in traditional theories, and features observability, back-testability and falsifiability.Keywords: Real-Virtual Dual Field; Macro Lattice; Conjugate Golden Decay Law; Fault Stress; Earthquake Critical Criterion; Holographic Entropy; Plate Tectonics