ABSTRACT We study what shapes the concentration of trade across partners in 31 European countries between 1995 and 2023. Using Gini and Herfindahl‐Hirschman indices for exports and imports, we examine how macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality and global uncertainty relate to whether a country trades with many partners or relies on a few. Human capital emerges as the most consistent factor linked to more diversified export partners, whereas results on the import side are sensitive to specification choices. Global economic activity and regional uncertainty show weaker and more variable associations. The findings are presented as conditional associations rather than causal effects, and they offer a benchmark for understanding cross‐country differences in trade exposure in an integrated European context.
Afonso et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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