This study analyzes an alternative perspective regarding the Indonesian rice price anomaly, wherein a rising supply is paradoxically correlated with increasing market prices. Utilizing macro-level data from the Ministry of Agriculture and BPS-Statistic, this research calculates regional baseline production and consumption metrics. The resulting models project an aggregate national surplus of approximately 4.4 million tons. However, this surplus is experienced by only 15 out of 38 provinces and remains heavily anchored by the island of Java, which commands 40.26% of the total net production in surplus region, despite representing just 7.01% of the national landmass. In an archipelagic nation like Indonesia, this extreme geographical concentration creates a severe structural vulnerability, where localized logistical friction and socio-economic dynamics within a minority of surplus-producing regions drive nationwide price volatility. Historically and contemporarily, the state has acknowledged and attempted to solve this spatial disparity through population redistribution via the Transmigration scheme, alongside massive spatial investments like the Food Estate mega-project and the new capital city, Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN). Concurrently, the state has ventured into capital-intensive nation-building programs such as the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) and the Sekolah Rakyat initiatives. Faced with these enormous financial commitments, this study bypasses investment-heavy proposals like agricultural mechanization. Instead, it advocates for a low-cost policy alternative by recommending the optimization of inter-island maritime logistics and the rebranding of the Village Fund (Dana Desa) into a localized "Regional Agricultural Resilience Fund."
Ricky Putra (Mon,) studied this question.
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