Dynamics of Interannual Variability in Summer Precipitation over East Asia*

Abstract The summertime mei-yu–baiu rainband over East Asia displays considerable interannual variability. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis for interannual variability reveals that precipitation anomalies over the mei-yu–baiu region are accompanied by in situ anomalies of midtropospheric horizontal temperature advection. Anomalous warm (cool) advection causes increased (decreased) mei-yu–baiu precipitation locally by inducing adiabatic ascent (descent). The anomalous precipitation acts to reinforce the vertical motion, forming a feedback system. By this mechanism, the remotely forced anomalous atmospheric circulation can induce changes in mei-yu–baiu precipitation. The quasi-stationary precipitation anomalies induced by this mechanism are partially offset by transient eddies. The SVD analysis also reveals the association of mei-yu–baiu precipitation anomalies with several teleconnection patterns, suggesting remote induction mechanisms. The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, which is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical western North Pacific, contributes to mei-yu–baiu precipitation variability throughout the boreal summer. The PJ pattern mediates influences of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in preceding boreal winter on mei-yu–baiu precipitation. In early summer, the leading covariability pattern between precipitation and temperature advection also features the Silk Road pattern—a wave train along the summertime Asian jet—and another wave train pattern to the north along the polar-front jet that often leads to the development of the surface Okhotsk high.