From Pandemic Shock to Sustainable Recovery: Data-Driven Insights into Global Eco-Productivity Trends During the COVID-19 Era

This study evaluates the eco-efficiency and eco-productivity of 141 countries using data-driven analytical frameworks over the period 2018–2023, covering the pre-COVID, COVID, and post-COVID phases. We employ an input-oriented Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) under variable returns to scale (VRS), combined with the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI), to assess both static and dynamic performance. The analysis incorporates three inputs—labor force, gross fixed capital formation, and energy consumption—one desirable output (gross domestic product, GDP), and one undesirable output (CO2 emissions). Eco-efficiency (the joint performance of energy and carbon efficiency) and eco-productivity (labor and capital efficiency) are evaluated to capture complementary dimensions of sustainable performance. The results reveal significant but temporary gains in eco-efficiency during the peak pandemic years (2020–2021), followed by widespread post-crisis reversals, particularly in labor productivity, energy efficiency, and CO2 emission efficiency. These reversals were often linked to institutional and structural barriers, such as rigid labor markets and outdated infrastructure, which limited the translation of technological progress into operational efficiency. The MPI decomposition indicates that, while technological change improved in many countries, efficiency change declined, leading to overall stagnation or regression in eco-productivity for most economies. Regression analysis shows that targeted policy stringency in 2022 was positively associated with eco-productivity, whereas broader restrictions in 2020–2021 were less effective. We conclude with differentiated policy recommendations, emphasizing green technology transfer and institutional capacity building for lower-income countries, and the integration of carbon pricing and innovation incentives for high-income economies.