Global use of polio vaccines prevented an estimated 29 million cases of paralytic polio between 1960 and 2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines.
Do polio vaccines and the GPEI prevent paralytic polio cases globally?
Global modeling estimates that polio vaccines and the GPEI have prevented tens of millions of paralytic polio cases since 1960.
BACKGROUND: Investments in national immunization programs and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have resulted in substantial reductions in paralytic polio worldwide. However, cases prevented because of investments in immunization programs and GPEI remain incompletely characterized. METHODS: Using a global model that integrates polio transmission, immunity, and vaccine dynamics, we provide estimates of polio incidence and numbers of paralytic cases prevented. We compare the results with reported cases and estimates historically published by the World Health Organization. RESULTS: We estimate that the existence and use of polio vaccines prevented 5 million cases of paralytic polio for 1960-1987 and 24 million cases worldwide for 1988-2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines. Since the 1988 resolution to eradicate polio, our estimates suggest GPEI prevented 2.5-6 million cases of paralytic polio compared to counterfactual worlds without GPEI that assume different levels of intensity of polio vaccine use in routine immunization programs. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of historical cases provides important context for understanding and communicating the benefits of investments made in polio eradication. Prospective studies will need to explore the expected benefits of future investments, the outcomes of which will depend on whether and when polio is globally eradicated.
Badizadegan et al. (Wed,) conducted a other in Polio. Polio vaccines and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) vs. Counterfactual world with no polio vaccines or without GPEI was evaluated on Number of paralytic polio cases prevented. Global use of polio vaccines prevented an estimated 29 million cases of paralytic polio between 1960 and 2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines.