Between Replacement and Intensification: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Different Land Use Types of Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture under Rapid Urban Growth in Nakuru, Kenya

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) contributes to urban food security and provides important livelihood opportunities. Due to rapid urbanization, though, UPA is subject to increasing land use pressure. Existing studies indicate gradual replacement of UPA in favor of other land uses. This study controverts this unidirectional narrative to show that UPA simultaneously persists and intensifies. Using remote sensing and qualitative data in the case of the rapidly growing, medium-sized Kenyan city Nakuru, we analyze spatiotemporal dynamics of four agricultural land use types (large-scale open-field production, smallholder production, intensive small-scale open-field production, and large-scale greenhouse production) to better understand different sociospatial trajectories. The findings show the coexistence of complex patterns of replacement, fragmentation, and intensification. We thus examine the extent to which detected dynamics can be explained by the socioeconomic characteristics of the four UPA land use types. Whereas large-scale production is increasingly fragmented and replaced by both small-scale agricultural production as well as residentially or industrially built-up areas, more intensive land use types focusing on high-value cash crops proliferate and intensify production in the research area. The study clarifies the dynamics of ongoing UPA transformations and is relevant for urban planning policies in rapidly changing urban and peri-urban environments.