An Analysis of the Asymmetrical Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Import and Export Prices of Petroleum Products

Puntos clave

• The study aims to empirically analyze the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on import and export prices of petroleum products in South Korea.
• Data analyzed from Bank of Korea's import and export price indices from January 2022 to March 2026.
• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model used to estimate price elasticities.
• Focus on the effects of won-dollar exchange rate fluctuations on crude oil, natural gas import prices, and gasoline, lubricants export prices.
• When the exchange rate increases, import price elasticity is significantly higher (1.92) than export price elasticity (1.42).
• Demonstrates an asymmetric pass-through effect of exchange rate changes on prices.
• Indicates that rising exchange rates worsen trade conditions and decrease export competitiveness rather than benefiting exporters.