An Analysis of the Asymmetrical Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Import and Export Prices of Petroleum Products

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Key Points

The study aims to empirically analyze the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on import and export prices of petroleum products in South Korea.
Data analyzed from Bank of Korea's import and export price indices from January 2022 to March 2026.
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model used to estimate price elasticities.
Focus on the effects of won-dollar exchange rate fluctuations on crude oil, natural gas import prices, and gasoline, lubricants export prices.
When the exchange rate increases, import price elasticity is significantly higher (1.92) than export price elasticity (1.42).
Demonstrates an asymmetric pass-through effect of exchange rate changes on prices.
Indicates that rising exchange rates worsen trade conditions and decrease export competitiveness rather than benefiting exporters.

Empirical analysis shows varying impact of exchange rate on import and export prices of petroleum products, indicating trade condition deterioration.

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Ki-Hwan KIM (2026) studied this question.

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