What type of study is this?

This is a Systematic Review study.

September 10, 2025Open Access

Systematic review of prognostic models in Parkinson’s disease

YLY LiSichuan University MMMillie McDonald-WebbUniversity of Aberdeen DMDavid J. McLernonUniversity of Siena

Key Points

This review identified 41 prognostic models in Parkinson's disease, highlighting the need for better prediction methods and validation.
Prognostic models primarily focused on short-term predictions, with over 60% making forecasts of 2 years or less.
Most studies reviewed showed concerns about risk of bias, with inadequate population details in 16 models and lack of external validation in 22.
13 out of the 41 models provided sufficient information; further development is needed to meet existing guidelines and reduce bias.

Abstract

Predicting outcomes for people with Parkinson's (PwP) can enable better information provision, personalised treatments, and enhanced trial design. It is unclear what prognostic models are optimal for use. We systematically reviewed previously published prognostic models for PwP, assessed quality, and made recommendations. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies developing/validating models predicting clinical outcomes in PwP. We assessed risk of bias and applicability using the PROBAST tool. We screened 1024 references and identified 25 studies (41 prognostic models). The most common outcomes were falls (11 studies), dementia (7) and motor complications (4). Most models made short-term predictions (60% ≤2 years). All studies had concerns about bias, e.g., inadequate population details (n = 16), suboptimal methods for missing data (n = 21), and no external validation (n = 22). 13 models had sufficient information to be used in practice. Further development and validation of prognostic models is needed which follows existing guidelines to reduce risk of bias.

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