Dissonance or Dialogue? Divergent Korean Public and State Views on Japan Ties

This study examines the psychological mechanisms underlying the divergence between South Korean public opinion and state policies toward Japan during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s 2022–2023 rapprochement. Drawing on cognitive dissonance theory and the concept of a consistency gap, we argue that tensions emerge when citizens’ historical perceptions of Japan conflict with their evaluations of government policy. Using data from the 2022 and 2023 Korea–East Asia Perception Surveys, we construct a gap index capturing inconsistencies between history and policy views. Linear regressions, interaction models with Johnson–Neyman intervals, and generalized additive models test five hypotheses on the roles of identity anxiety, dual psychological pathways, and future-oriented hope. Results show that moderate inconsistency provokes stronger resistance than extreme divergence, while hope facilitates cognitive realignment. The study advances understanding of how the Korean public negotiates historical legacies and foreign policy cues, highlighting the psychological dynamics of public–state dissonance in post-conflict international politics.