What question did this study set out to answer?

The study examines how trade policy uncertainty from the Sino-US trade war affects China's economy.

June 28, 2026

The impact of the Sino–US trade war on Chinese economy: from the perspective of trade policy uncertainty

Key Points

The study examines how trade policy uncertainty from the Sino-US trade war affects China's economy.
Analyzed changes in trade policy uncertainty using tariffs from the USITC's 2018 list and city statistical yearbooks.
Employed a DID model for empirical analysis across various prefecture-level cities in China.
Considered factors like export intensity, TPU exposure level, and technological intensity in assessment.
China's economic growth rate declined by approximately 0.292 percentage points due to the trade war.
Estimated annual economic loss exceeds 200 billion yuan.
Impact varies significantly across regions based on industry-specific factors.

Abstract

During Trump’s administration, the uncertainty of China–US trade policies soared sharply. This study, based on the USITC’s 2018 list of tariffs imposed on China, combined with city statistical yearbooks and customs data, calculated the changes in trade policy uncertainty in various prefecture-level cities of China across different industries. Using DID model with a continuous dependent variable for empirical analysis, it was found that the Sino–US trade war caused China’s economic growth rate to decline by approximately 0.292% points, with an annual economic loss of over 200 billion yuan. Moreover, this impact shows significant differences in various regions, which depends on numerous factors such as export intensity, TPU exposure level, and technological intensity.

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