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The study examines how trade policy uncertainty from the Sino-US trade war affects China's economy.

The impact of the Sino–US trade war on Chinese economy: from the perspective of trade policy uncertainty

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Randomized trial analyzes the economic impact of trade policy uncertainty in China, indicating substantial financial losses.

The study examines how trade policy uncertainty from the Sino-US trade war affects China's economy.
Analyzed changes in trade policy uncertainty using tariffs from the USITC's 2018 list and city statistical yearbooks.
Employed a DID model for empirical analysis across various prefecture-level cities in China.
Considered factors like export intensity, TPU exposure level, and technological intensity in assessment.
China's economic growth rate declined by approximately 0.292 percentage points due to the trade war.
Estimated annual economic loss exceeds 200 billion yuan.
Impact varies significantly across regions based on industry-specific factors.

Cao et al. (2026) studied this question.

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