What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate the economic impact and underlying mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese export flows to the United States during the bilateral trade dispute.

August 7, 2026Review of International EconomicsOpen Access

Beyond Tariff Effects: The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Chinese Exports to the U.S. in the Trade War

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To evaluate the economic impact and underlying mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese export flows to the United States during the bilateral trade dispute.
Analyzed monthly bilateral trade data between China and the U.S. from 2015 to 2019.
Quantified trade policy uncertainty using the tariff gap metric.
Evaluated transmission mechanisms across product types by assessing elasticity of substitution, technological intensity, sunk costs, and market entry or exit patterns.
Trade policy uncertainty accounted for approximately 76.70% of the decline in China's export value to the U.S. during the trade war.
Heightened uncertainty decreased export quantities while increasing unit export prices by raising market exits, deterring new entries, and driving quality competition.
Export reductions were less pronounced among intermediate goods, products with lower elasticity of substitution, and goods requiring medium skill or technology intensity.

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Implication

Empirical analysis reveals trade policy uncertainty reduced export volumes and raised prices in Chinese-U.S. trade, indicating substantial welfare losses for American consumers.

Cite This Study

Shou et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7c00f54fcef545fadf98f7 https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.70083

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Implication

Empirical analysis reveals trade policy uncertainty reduced export volumes and raised prices in Chinese-U.S. trade, indicating substantial welfare losses for American consumers.

Beyond Tariff Effects: The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Chinese Exports to the U.S. in the Trade War

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Beyond Tariff Effects: The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Chinese Exports to the U.S. in the Trade War

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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